ASML:EURONEXT AMSTERDAMASML Holding NV Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-21 - not real-time
$1,739.02
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
ASML is trading at €1,739, well above its 20‑day SMA of €1,806 and the DCF‑derived fair value of €697, giving a PE ratio of 60× versus an industry average of 33× – a clear sign of overvaluation. The MACD shows a bearish divergence (line at 4.8 vs signal at 20.6) and volume is on a decreasing trend, suggesting short‑term pressure, while the RSI sits near 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Despite the technical headwinds, the company posted 21% revenue growth, a 53% ROE and a robust free cash flow generation of €8.4 bn, underpinning a sustainable dividend (payout ratio ~30%). Recent analyst consensus (strong‑buy) targets a median price of €2,296, implying >30% upside, and news of a swelling AI‑related order backlog reinforces the growth narrative, even as ASML faces moderate regulatory scrutiny over EUV exports to China.
Despite the technical headwinds, the company posted 21% revenue growth, a 53% ROE and a robust free cash flow generation of €8.4 bn, underpinning a sustainable dividend (payout ratio ~30%). Recent analyst consensus (strong‑buy) targets a median price of €2,296, implying >30% upside, and news of a swelling AI‑related order backlog reinforces the growth narrative, even as ASML faces moderate regulatory scrutiny over EUV exports to China.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram and decreasing volume
- Price below 20‑day SMA indicating near‑term correction risk
- High valuation multiples relative to peers
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth and 53% ROE
- Analyst price targets suggesting >30% upside
- Expanding AI‑driven order backlog and secular semiconductor demand
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strategic moat in EUV lithography technology
- Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
- Long‑term tailwinds from advanced node adoption and global chip fab expansion
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth21.30%
Profit Margin30.11%
P/E Ratio60.2
ROE53.94%
ROA16.45%
Debt/Equity9.09
P/B Ratio1565.2
Op. Cash Flow$11.5B
Free Cash Flow$8.4B
Industry P/E32.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI47.4
Support$1,703.40
Resistance$1,999.96
MA 20$1,806.11
MA 50$1,722.37
MA 200$1,360.92
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.13
Valuation
Fair Value$696.79
Target Price$2,119.61
Upside/Downside21.89%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.52%
Risk Assessment
Beta2.30
Volatility67.35%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.